Exchange-rate expectations point to a firmer peso
Recent dynamics
The median expected USD/CLP exchange rate remained around 950 during the beginning of 2025 before gradually moving lower.
The expected exchange rate declined through the remainder of the year, moving from the 930–950 range toward approximately 900 pesos per dollar.
The decline continued during 2026, with the median forecast reaching 860 before partially reversing and returning toward the upper-800 range.
The latest expectation stands at 880 pesos per dollar. This is approximately 6.38% below the corresponding forecast one year earlier, despite the modest rebound from the recent low.
Interpretation and economic signal
The lower expected USD/CLP level indicates that survey participants now anticipate a stronger Chilean peso relative to the expectations prevailing one year earlier.
The recent increase from the lowest forecast suggests that some of the earlier appreciation expectations have been reversed, but the median remains well below the levels observed through much of the previous period.
A firmer expected peso can be consistent with stronger external conditions, favorable commodity revenues, lower perceived domestic risk, or changes in expected interest-rate differentials. The survey itself, however, does not identify which factor is driving the adjustment.
The exchange-rate outlook also matters for inflation expectations. A stronger peso can reduce local-currency pressure from imported goods and other dollar-denominated costs, although the eventual pass-through depends on broader pricing conditions.
Because the forecast horizon is always 11 months ahead, the underlying target date changes with each survey. Movements in the series should therefore be interpreted as changes in the rolling exchange-rate outlook rather than revisions to a single fixed-date forecast.
Conclusion
Chile's median 11-month-ahead exchange-rate expectation stands at 880 pesos per dollar after recovering modestly from its recent low.
The expected USD/CLP rate remains substantially below its level one year earlier, indicating that the outlook continues to incorporate a comparatively stronger Chilean peso.
The current signal is therefore one of a firmer expected peso, despite some recent moderation in the strength of the appreciation outlook.