Activity rebounds, but underlying momentum remains moderate
Recent dynamics
Economic activity showed relatively solid but volatile annual growth during the first half of 2025. IMACEC growth reached almost 5% at its strongest point before moderating to around 3.4% by the middle of the year.
Momentum weakened considerably during the second half of 2025. Annual growth slowed sharply, briefly recovered, and then moderated again toward the end of the year.
The deterioration became more pronounced at the beginning of 2026. IMACEC moved into annual contraction and remained negative for five consecutive observations, with weakness extending across much of the first half of the year.
The latest reading marked a significant break from that pattern. IMACEC increased approximately 2.4% from one year earlier, returning activity to positive annual growth after the extended contractionary sequence.
The seasonally adjusted index also increased approximately 0.6% from the previous month, indicating that the improvement was not solely the result of the annual comparison.
Interpretation and economic signal
The return to positive growth represents a meaningful improvement in Chile's short-term activity picture. It reduces the immediate downside signal created by the prolonged sequence of annual contractions.
The composition of the rebound nevertheless calls for some caution. Mining was an important contributor to the improvement, supported particularly by stronger copper production, while commerce and services also recorded positive growth.
Non-mining activity expanded more moderately than the aggregate index. This suggests that part of the rebound reflects the normalization of natural-resource production rather than an equally strong acceleration across the domestic economy.
The annual growth rate also remains below the pace recorded one year earlier. The latest improvement therefore represents a recovery from recent weakness rather than a return to the stronger growth environment observed previously.
A favorable calendar effect also provided some support to the annual comparison, adding another reason not to interpret the headline rebound as evidence of an immediately established high-growth phase.
The broader signal is therefore one of stabilization and initial recovery. A stronger assessment would require positive growth to persist and become increasingly supported by non-mining activity, services, investment-related sectors, and other domestically driven components.
Conclusion
Chile's IMACEC has returned to positive annual growth after an extended period of weakness. Activity expanded approximately 2.4% from one year earlier, while the seasonally adjusted index also improved from the previous month.
Mining, commerce, and services contributed to the rebound, but the more moderate performance of non-mining activity indicates that the recovery remains uneven.
The current signal is therefore one of an initial rebound after prolonged weakness rather than a fully established recovery. Sustained and broader positive growth would provide stronger evidence of a durable improvement in economic momentum.