Inflation expectations remain stable after a temporary increase
Recent dynamics
Inflation expectations declined gradually through much of 2025, moving from 3.8% toward the low-3% range as the year progressed.
By the end of the year, the median expectation had reached 3.0% and remained at that level during the first months of 2026.
A temporary increase then pushed the expected inflation rate to 4.0%, but the move proved short-lived. Expectations quickly returned toward the previous range.
The latest reading stands at 3.10%, only slightly above 3% and 0.10 percentage point below its level one year earlier.
Interpretation and economic signal
The return toward 3% following the temporary increase suggests that the rise in expected inflation did not develop into a persistent reassessment of the inflation outlook.
The relatively narrow range of recent observations also points to a stable expectations environment. Short-term fluctuations have occurred, but the median forecast has repeatedly converged back toward similar levels.
Stable inflation expectations are important for monetary policy because they reduce the risk that temporary price pressures feed into broader wage and price-setting behavior.
The slight decline relative to one year earlier reinforces the absence of sustained upward pressure in expectations. At the same time, the recent small increase from 3.0% to 3.1% is too limited on its own to indicate a material deterioration.
The current signal therefore remains one of broadly anchored inflation expectations, with the median forecast staying close to 3% despite temporary deviations.
Conclusion
Chile's 11-month-ahead inflation expectation stands at 3.10%, remaining close to the level that has prevailed through much of the recent period.
The earlier increase to 4% has largely reversed, while the annual comparison shows a modest decline in expected inflation.
The current signal is therefore one of stable and broadly anchored inflation expectations, with no persistent upward shift evident in the recent data.