Private consumption remains resilient despite moderating growth
Recent dynamics
Real private consumption expanded throughout 2024, although the annual pace remained relatively moderate during much of the year. Growth stood at 0.82% in the first quarter and slowed to only 0.28% in the second quarter before strengthening to 1.09% in the third quarter and 2.14% in the fourth.
The improvement became more pronounced during 2025. Annual consumption growth reached 1.70% in the first quarter and accelerated sharply to 3.43% in the second quarter, the strongest rate in the period shown.
Growth subsequently moderated but remained comparatively firm. Real private consumption increased 2.83% in the third quarter and 2.76% in the fourth quarter, indicating that household spending continued to expand even after the earlier acceleration began to lose momentum.
The latest observation extends this pattern. Real private consumption increased approximately 2.54% from one year earlier, slightly below the pace recorded in the previous two quarters but still well above the growth rate observed at the beginning of 2025.
Interpretation and economic signal
The principal signal from private consumption remains constructive. Household spending continues to expand in real terms, suggesting that domestic demand has remained relatively resilient despite weakness in several production-related parts of the economy.
The latest annual growth rate is approximately 0.84 percentage point higher than one year earlier. This indicates that the underlying consumption environment remains stronger than it was at the beginning of 2025, even though growth has eased from its more recent peak.
The moderation from 3.43% to approximately 2.54% should therefore not currently be interpreted as a contraction in household demand. Consumption volumes continue to increase; the data instead point to normalization toward a more moderate rate of expansion.
This resilience is particularly important given the broader economic backdrop. Aggregate output has experienced periods of weakness, while private consumption has continued to contribute positively to domestic demand. The divergence suggests that the slowdown has not been driven primarily by a broad retrenchment in household spending.
Positive real wage growth provides an important source of support to this pattern by improving household purchasing power. At the same time, elevated unemployment remains a potential constraint and could limit consumption growth if labor-market weakness persists.
The current configuration is therefore consistent with resilient but moderating domestic consumption. Household demand remains an important stabilizing component of the economy, although the slower annual growth rate suggests that the earlier acceleration is no longer strengthening.
Conclusion
Chile's real private consumption continues to expand at a healthy pace. Annual growth stands at approximately 2.5%, remaining significantly stronger than the rates observed during much of 2024 and early 2025.
Momentum has nevertheless moderated from the stronger expansion recorded previously. The gradual decline from growth above 3% toward approximately 2.5% indicates normalization rather than outright weakness.
The current signal is therefore one of resilient private consumption with moderating growth. Household spending continues to support domestic demand, but further acceleration would increasingly depend on sustained real-income growth and an improvement in labor-market conditions.