Growth expectations recover after a sharp weakening
Recent dynamics
Growth expectations remained broadly around 2% during the first part of 2025 before strengthening temporarily, with the median forecast reaching close to 3%.
The improvement subsequently faded, and expectations settled mostly within the 2.2%–2.3% range through the remainder of the year and into the beginning of 2026.
A pronounced deterioration then emerged, pushing the median forecast down from above 2% to 1.6%, 1.4%, and eventually only 0.5%.
That decline has since partially reversed. Expectations recovered first to 1.7% and then to 2.0%, leaving the latest forecast 0.30 percentage point below its level one year earlier.
Interpretation and economic signal
The rebound from the recent low indicates that the sharp deterioration in the growth outlook has not persisted. The median expectation has returned to a pace more consistent with the broader range observed before the decline.
Nevertheless, the latest forecast remains below its level one year earlier and below the strongest readings in the recent sample. The signal is therefore one of recovery rather than a transition toward a materially stronger growth outlook.
An important qualification is that this series refers to GDP growth in the calendar quarter of each survey. As the survey moves through time, the quarter being assessed also changes. Month-to-month movements can therefore reflect both revisions to expectations and changes in the specific quarter under evaluation.
The return toward 2% nonetheless suggests that expectations of very weak activity have eased. At the same time, the absence of a move back toward the higher readings seen previously indicates that forecasters continue to expect only moderate economic expansion.
The current signal therefore points to positive but moderate expected GDP growth, with sentiment improving from the recent trough but not yet indicating a strong acceleration.
Conclusion
Chile's median GDP growth expectation stands at 2.0%, following a substantial recovery from the weakest recent reading.
The forecast remains 0.30 percentage point below its level one year earlier, leaving the expected pace of expansion positive but moderate.
The current signal is therefore one of improving growth expectations without evidence of a pronounced strengthening in the underlying outlook.