Retail activity remains resilient despite slower growth
Recent dynamics
Retail activity expanded strongly through much of 2025. Annual growth frequently remained above 5% and reached particularly strong rates during several months, including a peak above 8%.
Growth moderated toward the end of the year and slowed further at the beginning of 2026, but the index remained firmly in positive territory rather than moving into contraction.
The pace subsequently stabilized at a relatively healthy level. Annual retail growth has remained around 4–5% in recent observations, with the latest reading near 5.1%.
Compared with one year earlier, the current annual growth rate is lower. The difference is approximately 1.8 percentage points, indicating moderation from the stronger expansion previously observed rather than a reversal in the direction of activity.
Interpretation and economic signal
The principal signal from retail activity remains constructive. Consumer-facing commerce continues to expand in real terms even while several production-related indicators have experienced periods of weakness.
This suggests that the broader economic slowdown has not been driven primarily by a collapse in household demand. Retail spending has instead remained comparatively resilient and has provided support to domestic activity.
The slowdown in annual growth is better interpreted as normalization than outright deterioration. Expansion remains comfortably positive and has become more stable after the stronger and more volatile rates observed previously.
The composition of retail growth nevertheless remains uneven. Some discretionary, automotive, and durable-goods categories have contributed relatively strongly, while parts of essential consumption have shown weaker momentum.
This means that the headline strength should not be interpreted as uniformly strong household demand across every category. The aggregate signal is positive, but underlying consumption patterns remain differentiated.
Continued retail resilience can help cushion weakness elsewhere in the economy, although its durability will ultimately depend on household income, employment, credit conditions, and consumer confidence remaining sufficiently supportive.
Conclusion
Chile's retail activity continues to expand at a solid annual pace, with growth remaining close to 5% and consistently above zero.
The pace is slower than the strongest rates observed previously, but the broader trend remains constructive. Household-facing commerce has continued to show greater resilience than several production-side indicators.
The current signal is therefore one of resilient retail growth with uneven composition. Consumer demand remains supportive, but strength is not uniform across all categories of spending.