Policy rate expectations remain tightly anchored

Recent dynamics

The median expected TPM remained at 4.50% through the first months of 2025 before declining to 4.25%.

Expectations then remained exceptionally stable, holding at 4.25% through the remainder of the year and into the beginning of 2026.

A temporary upward adjustment lifted the median expectation back to 4.50%, but the move was short-lived and subsequently reversed.

The latest reading is 4.25%, unchanged from the corresponding level one year earlier.

Interpretation and economic signal

The narrow range of observations indicates a high degree of stability in expectations for the medium-term monetary policy path.

The temporary increase to 4.50% did not develop into a sustained repricing. The subsequent return to 4.25% suggests that the median view of future policy conditions changed only modestly.

This stability contrasts with periods in which monetary policy expectations move rapidly in response to changes in inflation, economic activity, or financial conditions. The current pattern instead indicates relatively limited uncertainty around the expected policy-rate level.

The absence of any year-over-year change reinforces this interpretation. Expectations are not showing a persistent shift toward either substantially tighter or substantially easier monetary policy.

The current signal therefore points to a stable expected policy path, with only limited changes in the median TPM forecast.

Conclusion

Chile's 11-month-ahead TPM expectation stands at 4.25%, following only modest fluctuations across the recent period.

The median forecast is unchanged from one year earlier, while the temporary increase in expectations has been fully reversed.

The current signal is therefore one of highly stable monetary policy expectations and limited anticipated adjustment in the medium-term policy path.