Two-year peso yields remain elevated, but well below their 2026 peak
Recent dynamics
Chile's 2-year BCP secondary-market yield declined substantially through much of 2025. From levels above 5% in March, the yield moved progressively lower and reached around 4.15% in mid-December.
That downward trend reversed at the beginning of 2026. The yield returned to the upper-4% range in January and moved higher during March, reaching approximately 5.34% on March 24.
The second quarter then brought a significant retracement. The 2-year yield fell from around 5.20% at the beginning of April to approximately 4.66% by the end of June, reversing a large share of the first-quarter increase.
Yields rebounded again during July and August, briefly returning to around 4.98% near the end of August. The latest observation, at approximately 4.89% on September 3, sits below those recent highs but remains above the 4.65% recorded one year earlier.
The year-over-year increase is therefore approximately 24 basis points. At the same time, the latest yield is roughly 45 basis points below the March 2026 high, highlighting the two-sided repricing that has characterized the year.
Interpretation and economic signal
The 2-year BCP yield is an important market-based measure of Chilean peso interest-rate conditions at a relatively short maturity. Movements in this part of the curve can reflect changes in expected monetary policy, inflation expectations and the compensation investors require for holding fixed-income instruments over the relevant horizon.
The fact that the yield remains above its level one year earlier indicates that market pricing at the 2-year horizon is somewhat tighter than in early September 2025. However, the decline from the March peak shows that the degree of tightening embedded in market yields has moderated materially.
This yield should not be interpreted as the Banco Central de Chile's policy rate. It is a secondary-market yield and can move ahead of, or independently from, actual policy-rate decisions as expectations about the future path of rates and inflation change.
Daily movements should also be treated carefully. Market yields can react quickly to new macroeconomic information, global interest rates, inflation surprises and shifts in investor expectations, producing short-lived volatility around the broader trend.
In addition, the BCCh series represents the yield of a representative benchmark bond at the relevant residual maturity, rather than the uninterrupted price history of one specific bond. Occasional gaps can therefore occur when no suitable benchmark is available for that observation date.
Conclusion
Chile's 2-year BCP yield stood at approximately 4.89% on September 3, 2026, about 24 basis points above its level one year earlier.
The latest reading nevertheless remains materially below the 5.34% level reached in March. The current market signal is therefore firmer than a year ago, but considerably less restrictive than at the peak of the 2026 repricing.
The near-term direction remains mixed rather than one-sided: yields have rebounded from their late-June lows, but recent observations have not re-established the highs reached earlier in the year.